Monday, August 8, 2011

Leadville 100 Ultimate Direction contest

Ultimate Direction is putting up an Access waist pack for the person who guesses closest to my finish time this Saturday at the Leadville 100 bike. I used a similar model last year at the Leadville 100 run. Ultimate Direction will ship it for free.

Picking a DNF is perfectly legal (and probably not a bad bet) but you have to guess at which point I crash and am taken away in an ambulance. A DNS (Did Not Start) isn't accepted... that one is mine and I reserve that pick for myself between now and Saturday. I won't quit so don't bother picking that. For reference- My basic goal is to go under 9 hours. Last year's winner (Levi Leipheimer, former 3rd place in the Tour DeFrance) went something like 6:17 for the course record. A few training partners are betting I break 8. My own personal feeling is 8:45. The white Angel on my left shoulder say's well under 8... the Red Devil on my right shoulder say's I crash out descending Columbine... but that guy's a dick.

Last year...


This year?

46 comments:

Brad Poppele said...

7:17 Your going to Kill It!!!

Lucho said...

Dayum. Thanks for the vote of confidence Brad!

Eric Bart said...

7:52

Eric Bart said...

Meant to say good luck too, but I got too excited about the prize. Seriously, you'll do great!

Rick said...

7:11.
Ok, I'm posting my prediction in 2 places because you're due! I think being an hour off the CR is just stinkyleadshit. The CR is an average of about 16mph and a 7:11 is 14 mph. Go have some fun killin' it!

Footfeathers said...

Not that I think you couldn't go faster but I know (from experience) you'll race smart and finish strong in 8:15.

Lucho said...

Thanks again Rick!

Tim- The plan is to be SUPER cautious on the descents in the pack. I learned from Silver Rush it doesn't mean crap to be fit if you can't finish. I think 8:15 is generous for my first time... thanks!

Footfeathers said...

That's it. Get the dumb buckle and the seeding then fuck up the comp next year.

Brett said...

8h24m, you negative split the second half by 15 minutes.

Lucho said...

Yes. I have bike grease in my blood... you know what I'm talking about. Silver King and Leadville bike again next year... maybe the run if I have enough beers the night registration opens.

Wesley said...

8:35

Lucho said...

I like that one Brett... lines up with "the master plan".

Ward said...

8:27:13, FINISH!

Lucho said...

Ward- "finish"... definitely. It all starts (and ends) there.

James said...

8:07:06

I'm thinking the fact that my family and I won't be there to see you all bloodied up at the halfway mark like Silver Rush has to be good luck for you.
James

PatrickGarcia said...

7:47. Huge negative split.

Darren said...

30 minutes faster than your fastest Kona IM (8:20:38 then?).

Have a great ride and enjoy the effort.

Darren

McDuff said...

7:45

Wish I could be on course this weekend to cheer but most likely will make the trek out there to pace a friend during this year's run the following week. You should have no trouble beating your stated goal if the loose-rock gods don't play with you this go-round.

mtanner said...

8:47!!!!

Justin Raymond said...

7:30

I'm guessing you won't crash until you try unclipping after crossing the finish line

Chris said...

7:41

Kona Shelley said...

Good luck, i was out there last year sagging a friend..who unfortunately DNF'd..sucked, but still was a great experience!

Trailrat said...

I am going to guess 8:06. I think that you could easily go under 8 but all the people are going to hold you up the first half. Go get some!

GZ said...

That is a pretty sweet buckle combo.

So - do you have a race strategy? That sort of plays into the race predictions.

But for grins, I will go 7:59.

Lucho said...

Race strategy top 10:
#1- Ride safe, be patient.
#2- Eat and hydrate.
#3- Stay positive.
#4- Eat and hydrate.
#5- Ride Columbine strong.
#6- Eat and hydrate.
#7- Eat and hydrate.
#8- Ride all of Powerline.
#9- Eat and hydrate.
#10- Ride St Kevins climb inbound strong.

Rob Timko said...

8:11!

Anonymous said...

I'll say
8:13:11 on 8-13-11
Good luck!
I hope Rick is closer than me.
cfsu20@mailcity.com

Art said...

DO NOT ride all of P-line....walk the steep section, after you make the left turn headed into the sun, to the top of the first false summit....don't crash and you'll do 7:07....

Lucho said...

Thanks again Art! I think riding Pline is more of my ego talking. I have toyed with the idea that since I'm an OK hill runner that getting off there and using different muscles would be good and probably just as fast. The steep section is only a few hundred meters long anyway, tough to actually lose time there I think. If you win the prediction then I'll send you a few more things besides the pack!

Thomas said...

8:21. You're sandbagging!

Wassdoc said...

7:59:59
Just have fun...and be safe!

Paul said...

8:22 Take it to 'em. Be safe. And most importantly have fun.

krystyna47 said...

I'm going to go with 7:26! Have fun out there!

rightleftrepeat said...

7:31! Kick ass coach!

Kona Shelley said...

8:48

Dave said...

7:04.

Because you're patriotic. Really patriotic. Like the Tea Party. So patriotic that you hate the US Government, and will give me all of your winnings because the race goes through National Forest land.

You're awesome! Kill it! FOR AMERICA.

Anonymous said...

8:03

good luck!!!

Anke :)

Damie said...

I actually took the time to look up times from my friends here in Memphis that have done Leadville- given your elite athlete history, altitude, and climbing time in the saddle...I now have more of a perspective, I think. okay- this is kind of like The Price Is Right... my original guess was 7:17- but that is taken. So...let's go 7:18 and edge out Brad (if we are playing Price Is Right Style) :) If you don't ride smart I am going to be mad at you for ruining my prediction. I need to see a calm Tim at the beginning, please. Given the riders here that have done excellent sub 9 times, I have no doubt at all that you aren't going to do amazingly well. Have a great weekend and enjoy.

ej said...

hey tim i am gonna say 7:41.87. good luck my friend, and by the way, the header pic is awesome.

scott said...

6:56 with two flat tires for the last 20miles.

Dan Seifring aka "OBRATS" said...

Going with 7:39:42, and that is with one bike problem other wise it would be faster.

Best of luck Lucho.

Big Poppa Too said...

8:13
Better than you think. Your training looks really solid and race day always brings a little more.

Jim P. said...

8:09

SeanE said...

8:07.52

Mike and Sue said...

8:19 (But only because of the corral start) Next year 740.

Brian Rader said...

7:57 with one slight falter (not a 'wreck'). You're an animal on the mountain tomorrow! Good luck brother!